Week 12 Fantasy Recap

It's time to look back at the weekend's game and see how I did.

The Matchup
This week I (8-3) play the gboro nckranestylers (6-5), and I'm the projected favorite, 125-108. I think it's very unlikely that I can score that many points this week (my breadth over depth strategy allows me to be consistent, but not to occasionally explode for big points ... that's what you get when you value a high floor over a high ceiling). Also, any time your opponent is projected to score around 100 points, they have the opportunity to blow up and beat you when you weren't expecting it.

I'm second in my division, and my opponent is third. I'm 0.5 GB, so if I win and the Woodstock Woodies (8-2-1) lose, I'm back on top. I need to be back on top, I really do. The Woodies are the underdogs in their game this week, so I've been eagerly watching that game all weekend.

The Bad Decisions

  1. Starting the Giants Defense (-3 points) instead of the Vikings Defense (30 points)
    1. On the other hand, should the 21 points scored against the Giants' offense count against their defense? I think that's bogus
    2. I don't mind this decision very much ... considering the fact that the Vikings won a huge game against a good team on the road; and I'm pretty sure that if I'd started the Vikes, we would have gotten crushed
  2. Starting LenDale White (2 points) and Cedric Benson (4 points) instead of Justin Fargas (20 points) and Kenton Keith (7 points)
    1. Mistakes were made. No further questions
  3. Starting Randy Moss (4 points)
    1. How was I supposed to know the Eagles would suddenly Cleveland it up and hold Moss to his second 4 point outing of the season? I really needed those points
The Cost
These bad decisions cost me a total of 56 points which sat safely on my bench. Man, do I hate leaving points on the bench.

The Good Decisions
  1. Starting Peyton Manning (20 points) over Derek Anderson
    1. I usually plan to put this in the Bad Decisions list, but Manning made the Falcons look like the Falcons
  2. Starting Ryan Grant (19 points)
    1. During this game, I'd forgotten that I'd started Grant, and was really mad at myself for leaving points on the bench; it turns out I did start him after all
Bad Things That Happened
  1. As usual, Jason Witten (11 points) scored a touchdown and screwed me; if I didn't think Witten was so awesome, I'd have to hate his guts
  2. Jamal Lewis (20 points) and Plaxico Burress (15 points) both had great weeks for my opponent
  3. Hines Ward (8 points) was able to overcome the bad weather in Pittsburgh and beat me at the end of Monday Night Football ... this was quite infuriating
Good Things That Happened
  1. The Lions scored late and made the Thanksgiving game interesting; this is a Good Thing because my opponent had the Packers Defense (5 points), and that late touchdown meant he lost several points in an instant
  2. Marques Colston (15 points) continues to be a valuable asset to my team after a slow start to the year
  3. Chris Cooley (15 points) is an excellent tight end. He produces consistent points, and occasionally blows up with a huge game.
    1. He's had 4 games over 10 points and 4 games under 5 points
Interesting Note
I was favored by 17 points this week, which was both the median and the mean of the projected lines. Two games had larger lines, and two games had smaller lines. The smaller lines were -6 and -5, the larger were -28.4 and -35. I guess that's not that interesting, but I haven't noticed it happening to me before.

TMR's Love/Hate
I always read TMR's Love/Hate column for the week, mostly because he's a pretty funny guy and seems to know what he's about, fantasy-wise. Additionally, he realizes that he's going to be wrong a lot and doesn't try to hide it or make excuses. I appreciate that. Here are his Week 12 Love/Hate picks that apply to me.

TMR Loves:
TMR Hates:
That doesn't really help me out much, as usual. And also as usual, I didn't listen to him very closely. I started White (consistent) and Benson (facing the Broncos after 2 straight good weeks), and left Fargas on the bench. I started Grant because he's Green Bay's only RB and I don't think the Lions are good, and I'd read reports that Jacobs and Chatman are hurt anyway. And I started Manning over Anderson because I haven't brought myself to the point where I'm willing to bench Peyton.

Well ... I probably should have listened to the Talented Mr Roto just a little. He was right on every single call. Infuriating, really.

The Result
I lost 84-82 ... and it was a simply terrible loss. My opponent could very well have done a better job, having left Kevin Jones, Andre Hall, and the Seahawks Defense on the bench, but if we'd both made the correct decisions I would have dominated him. The point is that I didn't. And I lost. Believe me, I hated every second of it. I need to seriously step it up next week in order to make the playoffs. (Fortunately for me, the Woodies lost their game, 101-98. So I remain 0.5 games back in my division.)

Posted by Sean Schulte at 2007-11-27 02:05:41

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