Tarvaris Jackson Shows Improvement

When Brad Childress drafted Tarvaris Jackson in the second round of the 2006 draft, he claimed that his coaching tenure and legacy would be closely tied to the raw quarterback from Division 1-AA. It was among the first of a well documented stream of questionable decisions Childress has made since becoming the head coach of the Vikings.

Jackson appears to be an exciting prospect; couple a strong, accurate throwing arm with good speed and reasonable size, and you should end up with an above average quarterback. Childress repeatedly compared Jackson to Donovan McNabb at the same stages in their respective careers, even going so far as to say that Jackson has progressed faster than McNabb had.

However, while it was certainly easy to get excited about Jackson, he didn't impress anyone when he replaced Brad Johnson at quarterback late in his rookie season. In 4 games, he compiled 5.86 yards per attempt, 2 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a rushing touchdown. He was also the field general during the most boring Vikings-Packers game in recent memory.

Coming into 2007, Jackson was the starter. Childress had replaced Brad Johnson with Kelly Holcomb, who along with Brooks Bollinger complete what appeared to be an absolutely dismal quarterbacking core. Needless to say, the results were not pretty. He had a decent game followed by an atrocious one in Detroit where he threw 4 interceptions and got injured. A few weeks later, he returned against the Bears and had another decent game, with a rating of 73.8 and his second 60 yard touchdown pass of the season.

For the entire season, Jackson has been in and out of the starting lineup due to injuries, and when in the game has been fairly inconsistent, jumping between decent games and terrible ones. Here are his quarterback ratings by game:

Looking at those numbers, they indicate that early in the season Jackson alternated between decent and crappy performances, possibly coinciding with his injuries. And from seeing his behavior on the field and on the sidelines, he always seemed relieved to come off the field; that's not promising for your quarterback, and it said to me that this guy's nothing but a backup. But then something changed, both in his numbers and in his demeanor. His numbers went from almost-decent to decent to excellent in consecutive games, and on Sunday against the Giants he threw his third 60 yard touchdown pass of the season.

He's been looking more confident, stepping up in the pocket to deliver passes, eluding pass rushers in the backfield and running for a first down, and looking off safeties downfield to open up his receivers. He's walking with a bit of swagger, and the results are encouraging. (Though preliminary, he still hasn't thrown for 200 yards or 2 touchdowns this season; he did both against the Rams in the last game of 2006.)

If Jackson can maintain that confidence and continue to build on these performances, he may well develop into a serviceable quarterback by the end of the season. I don't know if he'll ever be an elite-level passer, but hopefully he'll be able to get the job done on a regular basis. Improved pass blocking and an upgrade at wide receiver are both necessary to give his chances a boost, but if he doesn't get better it won't matter.

The fact that he seems to do best when his pass attempts are limited does not worry me, as he's shown he can be extremely accurate (10-12 on Sunday) and the Vikings have an excellent running game with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor (who are #1 and #2 in the NFL in yards per carry). One thing about Jackson's running that I've noticed a difference between now and earlier in the season is that when he's flushed out of the pocket he now pins his ears back and sprints for the first down; earlier, he'd continue bouncing around, trying to find receivers open downfield. I generally prefer the latter attribute in quarterbacks, but the fact that Jackson has apparently learned that he doesn't have that ability at this point in his career is promising; he can worry about improving as a passer once he's shown he's good enough to have a job.

In all, Tarvaris Jackson has shown a lot of improvement. He's still fairly raw, and his presence on the field does not instill confidence in me. He's still not good, but he's gotten to the point where he no longer sucks. (Quick test: who would you rather have? Tarvaris Jackson or Rex Grossman? I thought so.)

In addition to watching the potential playoff run, the remainder of 2007 will hopefully showcase Jackson's continued development. It should be a good show.

Posted by Sean Schulte at 2007-11-26 14:19:24

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