NFL Week 4 Picks
This week I'm taking the betting lines from Vegas instead of ESPN Insider (because Insider's lines don't seem quite as official). Last week I didn't do so great, so let's see if it starts to balance out here.
Denver (-9.5) at Kansas City
Kansas City is awful. Just awful. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is proving himself to be an elite quarterback in this league, and the Chiefs aren't going to come close to stopping is onslaught. It's kind of a big spread, but I'm going to have to go with it. Cutler may not have to do all the work this time around, but that just means Shanahan can give some carries to his forty running backs. The Broncos are going to kill people this weekend.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3.5)
The Ohio Cup! Last year this matchup featured an unholy shootout with eleven touchdown passes; it was the breakout game for Derek Anderson, and he floated on that breeze all the way to a lucrative contract extension. Well, now that he has that money he's feeling the pressure, and has been playing like a Browns quarterback once again. I figure Clevelanders will continue to call Brady Quinn's name in this one, as Anderson won't be able to take advantage of the Bengals' crappy defense. That said, Carson Palmer has looked like crap and hasn't gotten any help from his weapons on offense. Chad Ocho Cinco still has zero career touchdowns -- he needs to either change his name back or buy out Reebok's inventory so he can get his name on his uniform. Until then ... I have to go with Cleveland in this one.
Houston at Jacksonville (-7)
Houston let me down last week and got murdered by the Titans, while the Jaguars ripped Peyton Manning's heart out in the final seconds of their showdown with the Colts. I don't doubt that Jacksonville has the better team, and it looks like they might be rebuilding that strong offensive line -- 13 minutes of time of possession in the fourth quarter is how you win games. That said, I don't know if they're a full touchdown better than the Texans. Oh what the hell, Houston looked weak against the Titans, and Jack Del Rio will learn something from that film. Jacksonville.
Arizona at New York Jets (-1)
Brett Favre has never come back to win a game when trailing by 14 or more points. I continue to be shocked by that statistic. The Legend of Favre says that no lead is safe; he'll come back from 30 point deficits and do it regularly. But no, in reality, he won't. He's hurt, and coming off a brutal shellacking the Chargers. That doesn't bode well for a Jets team that really has no weapons other than their aging gunslinger. I'm going with the upset here; Kurt Warner will outplay Favre and the Cardinals win.
San Francisco at New Orleans (-5)
JT O'Sullivan channels the fury of Mike Martz's playbook against the Saints friendly defense. I see this one being pretty high scoring, as Brees and Reggie Bush also won't be stopped by the 49ers. I also don't see the Saints running away with it, even if they win. 49ers beat the spread.
Atlanta at Carolina (-7)
Carolina's got to be pissed about losing to the Vikings, so they'll now get to take out their frustrations on the Falcons. I'm really not fooled by Atlanta's record, given that they've beat two of the worst teams in the NFL. And the Panthers showed that they can stop a powerful running game; Adrian Peterson didn't even rush for 100 yards against them. I'm going with the Panthers.
Minnesota at Tennessee (-3)
Frerotte managed to get a win in his first start of the year for the Vikings, but it's going to be a lot tougher for him against the best defense in the NFL. And close games aren't where the Vikings thrive -- they give up way too many big plays and don't have a home run threat on their side. I have to go with the Titans at home.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
I'm a little confused by this one. Sure, the Packers were exposed by the Cowboys. But the Bucs were barely able to top the Bears, and Griese won't be throwing 67 passes ever again. Rodgers is a good quarterback with plenty of weapons and a good system, and the Packers' defense is no slouch. I can't see why the Bucs would be the favorite here. The Packers will win going away.
Buffalo (-8) at St Louis
I took the Bills last week on a big spread against another crappy team, and it screwed me. Once bitten, twice shy, as the saying goes. But ... the Rams are just so terrible, I can't do it. Trent Green isn't any kind of upgrade over Marc Bulger, and switching QBs doesn't solve the main problems the Rams have -- namely, their offensive line sucks, their defense sucks, and their wide receivers suck. Trent Edwards will win The Battle of Trent, and the Bills are going to kill the Rams.
San Diego (-7.5) at Oakland
Yeah, I believe it. The Raiders may have gotten close to winning last week against a good Bills team, but the Chargers are just too good, even without LT. What Norv Turner has to do is bench LT if he's not 100%, though, because when he's banged up at all, he's no good ... and it seems just about any running back can succeed with the offensive line. Also, Antonio Cromartie is going to have a big game against Jamarcus Russell. I'm going with the Chargers here, and it just might finally cost Lane Kiffin his job.
Washington at Dallas (-11)
Dallas is by far the best team in the NFL, and the Redskins aren't even in the second echelon. I don't see them stopping Romo, TO, Witten, Barber, or even Felix Jones. The Cowboys will score plenty of points and I'm going to go out on a limb and say they cover the spread. In fact, I think I have to put them in the "covers the spread every week until further notice" category.
Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago
Vegas seems to be confused by the Bears/Bucs overtime throwdown last week. There's absolutely no way the Bears are on the same level as the Eagles. In case anyone missed it, the Eagles just beat the tar out of the Steelers, and they did it by getting to the quarterback rapidly and regularly all night long. The Bears will fare no better -- Kyle Orton is no Ben Roethlisberger. The Eagles cover the spread easily.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Tough call here. The Ravens defense is getting back to what it used to be, according to all the "experts." At the same time, those same experts were calling them old and washed up last week, leading them to come out with something to prove against a subpar Browns team. With nothing to prove/overcome this week, will they have the same fire? And speaking of fire, the Steelers now have something to prove after being shown up by the Eagles. I see them coming out and running the ball right down the Ravens' throats with Mendenhall before going to the air and putting it away. Steelers cover.
Posted by Sean Schulte at 2008-09-27 11:14:54
blog comments powered by Disqus