NFL Week 3 Picks
I've decided to start making weekly picks for the football games. Everyone else does it, so I figured I should demonstrate that I'm clueless at least on the level of everyone else. Usually I'd just go by who wins, but in the spirit of picking, I'm going to go against the spread. Just to make myself look more incompetent. The betting lines are courtesy of ESPN Insider.
Kansas City (-4) at Atlanta
Oh good, an exciting game to start off with. Crappy KC QB Brodie Croyle, no, Damon Huard, no, Tyler Thigpen will try match his wits against overhyped Boston College passer Matt Ryan; at the same time, Larry Johnson will complain that he's not getting enough carries while Michael Turner burns some tracks in the field. Note to Larry Johnson: when you're only getting two yards per carry, you'll need a lot of carries to actually produce. Probably more plays than your anemic defense can get you, especially given that it assures that none of your team's drives will be longer than three plays. You suck, and will lose. I'm picking Atlanta. (I have Larry Johnson glued to my fantasy team's bench ... and he's on ESPN's no cut list and nobody in their right mind will trade anything for him. Why did the auto-shafter draft him in the 2nd round?!)
Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3)
Brian Griese makes a return to Chicago, where he hopes to finally prove to Lovie Smith that he's a good enough quarterback to lead an NFL team. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't have a receiver under 40 and Kyle Orton can't throw well enough to throw interceptions. I'm going with Chicago in this one. Oh, and another thing, Griese? Don't get too comfortable. Gruden will bench you within the month.
Miami at New England (-10)
Ten points is kind of a lot. On the other hand, the Dolphins are really bad. Does anyone really think Chad Pennington is the answer? I mean, other than overhyped front office man Bill Parcells? I think history will repeat itself and Parcells will turn the Dolphins around and make them a good team. Too bad it can't happen until after Parcells leaves. (Hey, I said history will repeat itself. Parcells is such an asshole that when he finally quits, the players are so overjoyed that they actually start winning.)
Oh, and another thing. We're currently stuck in Phase Two of the Boston Media (ESPN) Plan for making the Patriots everyone's favorite team again, after their dabbling with cartoonish supervillainy in 2007. The first phase occurred when Brady went down, and was to breathlessly proclaim that the Patriots have no chance without Brady and that they're old and this is the end, and that Tom Brady is the single most important and beneficial thing that has ever happened to the NFL. (Phase one also included inserting a couple people into broadcasts to say that they think the Patriots will do just fine; these people are to be ridiculed mercilessly by the other six people on the screen at that moment, but only during Phase One.) Phase Two is the part where the backup, Cassel, steps into the system smoothly and completes simple passes that continue drives and burns clock, getting the Patriots offense back to its efficient ball control style; could they have realistically done this while Brady was under center? Without losing their marquee players, how could they explain such a major dropoff from the highest scoring offense ever? Now that problem is solved for them. Phase Three is when they make it to the playoffs with a 10-6 record, get hot and blow through to the AFC Championship game, and the Boston Media (ESPN) falls all over themselves to say that The Patriots Are Back, and that nobody believed in them, and aren't they so amazing?
I'm going with New England in this one.
(And yes, I called Tom Brady a system quarterback. Deal with it.)
Houston at Tennessee (-4.5)
This one is due to be a low scoring defensive affair, which favors the hard nosed style of the Tennessee Jeff Fishers. And with Vince Young safely on the sideline, the Fishers won't have to worry too much about ill advised interceptions and consequent sulking by their "leader." On the other hand, the strong Texans D-line is going to love teeing off on Kerry Collins. I think the Titans are going to get takend down a notch here. Good thing it'll have exactly zero emotional effect on Vince Young, since he doesn't care about the outcome of the games. I'm going with Houston.
Detroit at San Francisco (-2.5)
Oh boy. Mike Martz's Patented High Octane Passing Attack versus Mike Martz's Patented High Octane Passing Attack. Or, more accurately, Jon Kitna versus JT O'Sullivan. This one is tough. I tried flipping a coin, but these teams suck so badly that the coin landed on its side. But I think the Lions are ready to move into a solid second place behind the Raiders in the coveted "most losses in the last 6 years" battle, so I'm going with San Francisco.
New Orleans at Denver (-5.5)
The Ultimate Leader tempted fate last week by going for two to win the game, knowing that the universe would re-align itself soon and he'd lose in overtime. He got away with it last week, but the football gods don't forget so easily. Reggie Bush will continue to do a good job pretending to be a wide receiver, and his moves will continue to look pretty sharp -- he's gotten plenty of practice running away from Kim Kardashian and her horrible family over the past few months. Oh, and when you're watching this game, notice that when they flash to the suite and show Kim, she's never sitting down; she can't fit into any chair with arms. I'm going with New Orleans.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-4.5)
I hope they show this one on TV, because it's going to be a fun one. Last week, Peyton Manning got exactly what any slumping player needs: the opportunity to face a Minnesota team. And now the beast has been awoken. He'll go nuts on a Jaguars team that is built similarly to the Vikings, and while the Jags will do better than the Vikes did, Peyton will do even better. Indianapolis.
Oakland at Buffalo (-8)
Al Davis is a ridiculous cartoon character, his players won't be able to compete very well without respecting their coach. Davis keeps undercutting Kiffin's authority in a desperate attempt to get him to quit (rather than just firing him, in which case Davis would have to pay him the rest of his contract). Meanwhile, the Bills are playing like they're trying to impress someone. My guess is that they're trying to impress the people of Toronto, for whom they'll be playing soon. Also, Marshawn Lynch is good. Go Buffalo.
Carolina (-1) at Minnesota
Hmm, a porous Minnesota pass defense gets to face Steve Smith with something to prove. Adrian Peterson is somehow banged up. (Seriously, when did that happen? If Purple Barbaro is going to get hurt, it should at least be on a recognizably painful play!) Gus Frerotte and his 74 career passer rating is supposed to be the offense's savior. I don't buy it. Carolina will get the job done against the overhyped Vikings. (It's taking longer than it should for the "good running offense and good running defense wins championships" common sense to be replaced by the more general "score points and prevent the other team from scoring" common sense -- it doesn't matter how good the Vikings rushing defense is when a blind midget with no arms could pass for 350 yards against them.)
Cincinnati at New York Giants (-10.5)
Heh. Yeah. The Bengals. I don't know if their NFL team could beat its prison yard affiliate. Meanwhile, Eli Manning Is Unstoppable. I know because I've seen it in a commercial. Also, he's the quarterback of The Doomsday Church of Oblivion, which obviously means he's going to rain doom upon his opponents. I was offered Roethlisberger straight up for Eli this week -- by this week's opponent. The fact that he wanted to make that trade fills me with confidence. Also, the Bengals are going to suck until Chad Johnson is gone. And replaced by Chad Ocho Cinco. At what point does he just buy all the inventory and donate it to charity in third world countries (or in poor neighborhoods in Cincinnati)? It would kill three birds with one stone: 1) Remove the name-change restriction; 2) Make himself look good in the eyes of regular Americans; 3) Make the NFL and its sponsors look like money grubbing douche bags who only care about the bottom line (which would be a delightful turn of the tables, given that the NFL and the media have done a good job of characterizing the players in that exact way). Since that hasn't happened yet, I have to pick the Giants.
Arizona at Washington (-1.5)
Jason Campbell looked good last week, and I see nothing in the Cardinals defense that indicates that'll change this week. This one won't be as close as the spread, and I'm taking the Redskins.
St Louis at Seattle (-7)
Let's see, worst team in the NFL against a team that relies solely on its passing game despite having a quarterback with an injured back throwing to no receivers. I'd be tempted to go with the points here (7 points seems like a big spread for a team that has shown so little offensively so far), but the Rams are just too awful. Seattle will cover the spread.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (even)
Even? I guess Vegas isn't even trying any more. But here's what I see. Big Ben isn't 100%, the Eagles are almost as good as the Cowboys, McNabb is finally back, Westbrook is as awesome as ever, and the Steelers won't be able to run with the offensive show the Eagles are going to put up. (In much the same fashion as the Eagles couldn't keep up with the Cowboys on Monday.) Also, my fantasy opponent has Roethlisberger. So a few interceptions and then leaving in the first half would be nice. Eagles.
Cleveland (-1) at Baltimore
The Browns haven't lived up to their preseason hype, largely because nobody apparently realized that they were playing way above their heads last year. And let's see ... a player has a great season with a small contract, gets a big contract in the offseason, suddenly isn't as good any more. I think I've heard this story before. Well, this time around it's Derek Anderson. So now the Browns have two highly paid quarterbacks who aren't producing anything for their team. (How can they not find a way to match up with the Vikings and get rid of one of them?) That said, the Ravens aren't great either. McGahee is making his first start of the season. It probably won't be that pretty. I'm picking Cleveland.
Dallas (-2) at Green Bay
This is sure to be a great game. For the second week in a row, two of the best teams in the NFC show off on national television. The way I see it, this'll be another offensive shootout, with plenty of points scored. And since I'm leaving Patrick Crayton on the bench this week, he'll probably score a touchdown. Also, this'll be the first time yet this season that Packers fans start screaming to get Brett Favre back, because the Cowboys are going to win it. However, they'll only be calling for Favre for 24 hours, because ...
New York Jets at San Diego (-5.5)
... Favre is going to get crushed by the Chargers. The football gods have not forgotten what happened to them last week, and they will be rewarded this week even without prima donna RB Tomlinson. By the way, he's injured constantly and nobody ever tarnishes his name with the "injury prone" label. Why? Oh, and another thing, whatever backup the Chargers have always seems to do just as well or better when they get the chance. Maybe the Chargers just have a good offensive line? I'm going with the Chargers.
If you've gotten this far, thanks for listening. Or, in this case, reading.
Posted by Sean Schulte at 2008-09-20 14:49:25
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