Sean's Sports : Jacoby Ellsbury is Jason Tyner, Perfected

Jacoby Ellsbury is Jason Tyner, Perfected

After reading a report by Ken Rosenthal that quotes a couple of AL scouts regarding Jacoby Ellsbury, I have to wonder why we're setting a hard line on him.

"A lot of hype," one scout says of Ellsbury.

"A polished
college player who played at a high level in a hurry," says another.
"He already is 'tool-ed' out. He only will be an 8-to-10 homer guy."

He seemed really good in the World Series, and in the brief time he played for the Red Sox in 2007. Everyone seems to be assuming that means that performance is his floor, and he'll continue to get better and better ad infinitum. I'd been making the same mistake.

First, let's ignore his MLB stats this year. The sample size is far too small for it to be worthwhile. This year, as a 23 year old at AAA, he batted .298/.360/.380 with 14 2B, 2 HR, 28 RBI, and 33 SB in 87 games. That's about enough games to be able to say it's accurate, but let's look to 2006. He batted .303/.382/.425 with 17 2B, 7 HR, 51 RBI, and 41 SB in 111 games split between A+ and AA ball as a 22 year old. (Note that Jason Tyner consistently batted .300/.370/.360 throughout his time at AAA, starting at age 22.)

Sure, those numbers aren't bad. But they're nowhere close to incredible. Having Ellsbury roaming CF is fine, if you already have a strong offense. He's not going to improve your offense. His on-base skills don't seem very good, and his patience seems to be regressing; he went from a 53-49 K-BB ratio in 2006 (A+ and AA) to a 54-38 K-BB ratio in 2007 (AA and AAA).

Basically, Jacoby Ellsbury is a fast player with a good glove, reasonable contact ability, and no power. There's not that much indication he'll improve significantly as a hitter. Imagine perfecting Jason Tyner, and you end up with Jacoby Ellsbury. I guess I just realized why the Twins want him so much.

But I don't think they should. He's incredibly over-valued, over-rated, and over-hyped. I doubt he'll ever end up being a star in this league, and at best will be a slightly above average top-of-the-order guy. We have plenty of slightly below average top-of-the-order guys already; Santana should net us a real improvement. (Like SS Jed Lowrie, who batted .298/.393/.503 between AA and AAA this year as a 23 year old.) Ultimately, Ellsbury may not be much better than Coco Crisp, who at the very least has demonstrated that he can hit at the major league level -- just not in Boston. Before he left Cleveland, he was a .300/.350/.450 type of hitter ... which we could definitely use on this team.

I guess I just don't care about Ellsbury.

Posted by Sean Schulte at 2007-12-01 15:44:27