I am SO putting that on my blog!

Matt Casey over at the NBC Circling the Bases blog has a post up right now describing a couple of the ways in which the Red Sox have gotten lucky over the last several years. He opens his comparison with:

And while there’s no question that the Red Sox have made many brilliant moves in scouting, the draft, free agency, marketing, etc, you also have to marvel at how extremely lucky they’ve been recently. Like, crazy lucky.

So in case you’ve had your head in the sand for the last five years and haven’t heard ESPN and MLBN and NBC and MLB every other media outlet with any connection to baseball tell you that the Boston Red Sox are sooooo dreamy … well, NBC’s telling you again that they’re just great. But they just might have, you know, maybe, been a little lucky … please listen before you beat me! Or fire me!

How exactly did they get lucky?

1. Francona (apprently, foolishly) called for a bunt in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, but the baserunner called it off an stole instead, leading to the Red Sox coming back and winning the game
2. They put Manny on irrevocable waivers in 2004, nobody took him, and he became the 2004 World Series MVP
3. They traded for A-Rod but the players’ union stepped in and shot it down
4. When they got the drastically overpaid Mike Lowell in a trade from the Marlins, he miraculously resurrected his career and suddenly became good well after the age of 30
5. They lost a bidding war for Jose Contreras to the Yankees … and Contreras turned out to be terrible
6. MLB decided to have a Red Sox employee investigate the steroid problem in baseball, instead of choosing an unbiased third party
7. They happened to be the only team in baseball with no connection to illegal steroids, at least until players leave Boston, at which point they suddenly start using steroids

Casey’s article only mentioned the first five of these. But the last two are pretty valid too. Casey ended thusly:

Again, before Sox fans overreact, it should be repeated: Boston has made plenty of tremendous personnel decisions, and more franchises should model themselves after the Sox. Maybe they’re finally the recipients of good karma after so many years of bad things happening. But enjoy the good luck while it lasts.

Jesus F’ing Christ. Are Red Sox fans really so fragile that writers have to be afraid to criticize the team in even the lightest possible fashion? I mean, nobody has said a bad thing about the Red Sox since 2004, and the first time someone comes out and says “you know, they’ve also caught some breaks,” he has to tread so lightly that he virtually neuters his entire point.

Boston fans need to get over themselves, and realize that these good times won’t roll forever. (Given that, you know, all the other good times enjoyed by anyone else in history have, at some point, stopped rolling.) And national media outlets have to get back to being unbiased sources of news and analysis, rather than a cadre of beat writers and homers openly rooting for one team over all others.

This is exactly why real baseball fans hate the Red Sox. They used to root for the Sox, but ESPN and Bostonians (both real and fraudulent) blew it with their ludicrous and over-the-top behavior since 2004. Fortunately, all this will end soon.

Posted via web from sirsean.posterous

Johan Santana is great. The Mets, though, really seem to hate him. He’s always had run support issues,* but since moving from Minnesota to New York, it’s basically become an absurd comedy.

* From 2004-2007, his time (as a starter) with the Twins, Santana ranked 1st in innings pitched, 1st in strikeouts, 1st in walks, 1st in ERA, 1st in wins, 1st in winning percentage … and 50th in run support.

Here are some of Johan’s starts from 2008 that probably should have been wins:

Loss: 7 innings, 1 earned run.
ND: 6 innings, 1 earned run
Loss: 7 innings, 3 earned runs
Loss: 6 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 7 innings, 0 earned runs
Loss: 7 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 8 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 8 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 6 1/3 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 7 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 7 innings, 2 earned runs

Even with all that, he managed to go 16-7. If the offense had scored its average amount of runs in those games, and/or the bullpen hadn’t blown the lead after Santana left the game, his record very well could have been 27-3. Are you kidding me? The gap between 16-7 and 27-3 seems (and is) huge … but there’s really nothing Santana could have done to get those extra wins; he did everything possible, and pitched well enough. His team just didn’t Johan-up.

To his credit, Santana has never complained about this (since leaving Minnesota, where he did start to complain close to the end of his tenure — I think he was just annoyed, or something). Calcaterra, take it away:

Despite the fact that Johan Santana has been repeatedly boned by his bullpen over the past couple of years, he still manages to keep his composure. Total pro. But no one can keep it locked in forever, and one day, 15 or 20 years from now, some writer is going to make an argument that Santana is not Hall of Fame worthy because his win totals weren’t good enough, and that’s when Johan will start killing folks.

Great writing like that is why I wake up and turn on the internet every morning.

But he brings up a good point. In 15 or 20 years, the question of Johan-for-Hall will start to become relevant. Writers famously look at total wins (and nothing else), rather than ERA+ (which Santana is great at), or win percentage (where Santana is third best all time and would be first if the Mets weren’t blowing all his leads).

Can you imagine if he comes a little short on the total-wins list? This is the best pitcher of his era. He racks up strikeouts, minimizes walks, and epitomizes the “big game pitcher” that nobody wants to face. He makes the best hitters in baseball flail like they’ve never seen a pitch before, and he does it to them on three straight pitches until they go sit down and think about what they did. He is great.

And if they make him wait to get into the Hall based on his win-count, I have the distinct feeling that he’ll eventually have a Blyleven-esque explosion.

Posted via web from sirsean.posterous

Last week, Brian McCann thought he’d fixed his blurred vision by getting some new contacts. Apparently that didn’t actually work, and he will now be headed to the DL.

My first thought is that I’m pissed, because he’s the catcher for the Doomsday Church of Oblivion, and he was supposed to be one of the anchors of the offense. I need a catcher, after all, and I thought it was pretty important that I had one of the best offensive catchers in the game. But after sucking ass for the last three weeks, he will now be out entirely for the next two.

But my second thought was about laser eye surgery, for two reasons:

1. I think this is an upcoming issue, and that people should be thinking* about eye surgery in the same way they think about performance enhancing drugs
2. I read the following line:

McCann is hopeful that he can regain his optimal vision by simply repeating the Lasik surgical procedure that he first underwent after the 2007 season.

* When I say “thinking” about them in the same way, I don’t mean “think of them in the same light,” or that having eye surgery is a bad thing. I’m just baffled that nobody seems to care that players are having surgery to improve their performance when they cared more than anything they’ve ever cared about before that players were using drugs to do the same thing. In other words, I think people should be thinking about the ethical implications and possible dangers of performance enhancing eye surgery.

So Brian McCann had laser eye surgery about 18 months ago, had a great 2008 season, and now … he’s going blind.

As a Twins fan, I’m suddenly worried about Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Justin Morneau, who have had the eye surgery. I really don’t want these guys going blind.

I’m going to keep following this, and I’m going to hope McCann gets through this smoothly and that the eye surgery procedure is safe. Stay tuned.

Posted via web from sirsean.posterous

Interesting post about fielding and the injury risks incumbent with changing positions over at BP. There was one bit that I found particularly striking:

Yogi Berra said that he couldn’t think and hit at the same time; it’s perhaps more true that a player can’t think and field simultaneously. That millisecond of hesitation might lead to a collision, or being in the wrong place, or getting off to a slow start, possibly causing a muscle strain as the player tries to physically overcompensate. Any change—new position, new park—will throw that wee bit of thinking into the mix.

I remember that I always had that problem when I was playing. Both in the field and at the plate, I was always thinking, and it made my reactions slower. People would always tell me “you look like you’re thinking out there,” and I never understood that it was a bad thing, or how to stop.

The ability to turn off their brain is yet another of the rare and valuable skills that separate professional athletes from the rest of us. I wonder if that’s more learn-able than “hitting a 90 MPH fastball,” or worse, “hitting a curve ball.”

Posted via web from sirsean.posterous

Last night’s win pulled the Twins back to within a game of .500, at 8-9. The bats were alive enough to score 5 runs, and it would have been quite a bit more if Cuddyer hadn’t struck out with the bases loaded and two outs.

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

Last night I turned on the Mariners game to watch while I was barbequeing. Unfortunately I turned it on a couple minutes after the game started and missed Ichiro’s leadoff homer.
 
I then proceeded to watch the rest of the game, which ended 1-0. I wonder how often that happens: a leadoff homer that’s the only scoring in the entire game.
 
How would you like to be the losing pitcher in that one?

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

Yesterday the Doomsday Church of Oblivion awoke from its slumber of
the last ten days, and knocked some balls around the park.
 
The offense was led by solo home runs from Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez,
Jay Bruce, Jayson Werth, and Jim Thome. Alex Rios had an excellent day
at the plate, going 4 for 6 and driving in a pair of runs. The only
weak parts of the offense yesterday were Mark Teixeira’s 2 for 7* and
Garrett Atkins’s 0 for 4.
 
* Yes, seven.
 
Sounds like the Doomsday Church needs to put some fear into their
corner infielders, because those guys are supposed to put a bit more
charge into the ball. I swear, I’m this close to starting Aubrey Huff
over Garrett Atkins, possibly on a regular basis.
 
But as a whole, the team batted .350 yesterday, with 5 HR, 10 R, 11
RBI, and 1 SB (thank you Jayson Werth!). That was just barely enough
to squeeze back into the lead for this week, after a thoroughly
disappointing first few days.
 
Keep it up, or you’re doomed!

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

Apparently, the blurred vision that's been crippling my fantasy team (and, I guess, also the Braves) has been resolved with contact lenses.

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

The goal of a manager is to put the best possible team on the field every day. Sometimes guys need rest, and sometimes a guy has a hot bat and you want to get him in the lineup at all costs.
 
A manager has to be in tune with those things, and has the benefit of being around the players 24/7 to get a gauge on their physical and emotional state.
 
In fantasy baseball, you need to do the same thing, except you’re not around the players. You don’t know if their asses are dragging and they’re not going to play well today. You don’t know if the manager is going to give them a day off and you won’t get anything from them that day.
 
And you also don’t know if they’re looking good and are about to have a good game. And this gets me to the crux of why it’s more heartbreaking for a fantasy manager.
 
If a manager keeps a guy out when he shouldn’t have, he doesn’t necessarily know that it was the wrong decision. The player’s stats that day are all zeroes. The manager can go to bed at least thinking that be did an adequate job of putting the best team on the field, even if he lost that day.
 
But a fantasy manager knows what players did on his bench. He knows what they would have done if only he’d slotted them into the lineup that day.
 
Aubrey Huff hit two homers yesterday, and was sitting on my bench. I need those numbers in my current matchup, lest I continue to fall behind. If I didn’t know Huff would have gotten 2 homers if he’d played instead of Carlos Pena, I wouldn’t be kicking myself right now.
 
Also, I hear the money’s better if you manage a real baseball team.

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

I just saw a commercial for private boxes for Cubs games. Obviously they’re trying to trick people into paying even more money than it normally costs to get into Wrigley, but that’s not the point.
 
The point is that when they were showing off the private box, there was a table bearing trays full of sushi. I know many newfangled stadiums are proud to offer non-baseball food like lobster… but did you ever think you could get a tray of sushi at Wrigley field?
 
What is the world coming to?

Posted via email from Sean’s posterous